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This report presents new CCEP research that addresses how demographic change in the U.S. is impacting the nation's political landscape. The 2012 general election generated considerable discussion about the current and future demographic make-up of the U.S. electorate. Much of this attention focused on how growing numbers of U.S. Latinos might generate a larger share of Latino voters, and what their inﬂuence might be on the political process. How Latinos vote, how often they vote, and how that vote will grow in the coming years has signiﬁcant implications for both national and local politics, potentially remaking the nation’s “red-blue map,” and giving Latinos a greater voice in the political decision-making process.
This report provides a detailed overview of the U.S. and California’s changing population composition, while also documenting the historical and current racial and ethnic disparities in voter turnout present within our electoral system.
How well did Latino and Asian Americans turn out to vote last November? What can we expect in 2016? The California Civic Engagement Project (CCEP) at the UC Davis Center for Regional Change will release new research examining disparities in voter participation during the 2014 general election. The policy brief discusses new analysis projecting the strength of the Latino and Asian American vote in California and identifying the potential impact of these voters in the 2016 elections.
In the November 2014 general elections, voter turnout was abysmal across the nation, producing the lowest U.S. turnout rates in decades. California's previous record for low turnout was broken by nearly a half dozen percentage points. Voter turnout is typically lower in mid-term elections, but fall 2014 marked a major falloff from the state's general election turnout in 2012, resulting in even less representation of voters. In this brief, we examine youth electoral participation in California's November 2014 general election and explore the impact of the youth vote on the current and future electoral landscape of the state.
(citizens over age 18) turned out to vote in the June 2014 primary election; the lowest eligible turnout of any statewide election in California history. Given the gap between eligible youth turnout (age 18-24) and the rest of the electorate is typically larger in primary elections, the CCEP examines how low youth turnout was in the June primary. The study also projects what the future impact of the youth vote might be in California going forward, given both its changing party affiliations and population size.
Post-analysis of the 2012 November election drew considerable discussion around the current and future make-up of the electorate. Much of this attention focused on how future demographic shifts, particularly the expected growth of the non-white population, might impact the makeup of the electorate and, thus, potentially change both the nation's and California's political landscape. Among the findings in this report: 1) By the 2016 elections, California will have a majority-minority electorate -- for the first time, non-Latino whites will fall below 50 percent of the state's eligible voters. 2) California is projected to gain 8.3 million new eligible voters by 2040 -- 8 million of which will be people of color. 3) Latinos are projected to be 33 percent of California's voting electorate by 2040.
This brief examines the impact of the Latino vote in California, over the last decade and its potential growth going forward. Among the key findings: 1) In 2012, Latinos increased their share among California voters, but they remain underrepresented in voter rolls. 2) Latinos are projected to make up 30 percent of California's voters by 2040. The proportion of Latino voters registered as Democratic has been steadily declining over the past decade. Latinos are increasingly registering as having no party preference. 3 ) Latinos who did not cast ballots are more likely to be from lower-income areas of the state.
This brief examines how the 2012 youth vote differs from California's voting electorate and what impact these differences have on the political party representation in the state. The research finds that more than two-thirds, or 2 million, of California's eligible young adults failed to vote in the 2012 general election, even after a significant increase of 18-to 24-year-olds registering to vote. 2012 youth registered turnout decreased 10 percentage points from the 2008 registered turnout of youth.
This brief identifies the impact from California's new online voter registration system on the state's electorate. Some analysts questioned whether online registrants would actually turn out to vote. The brief finds that voters who registered online turned out to vote at higher levels than those who registered in traditional ways. Online registrants that voted also looked very different than the rest of the electorate, in terms of age and political party affiliation. Youth made up 30 percent of those who registered online and 26% of all online registrants who voted, adding to overall youth registered turnout.
Boosted by online registration, the youth electorate in California grew significantly for the November 2012 election, dramatically outpacing growth in the state's general registration and driving the decline in major party registration. Youth comprised 30% of all online registrants and variation in party affiliation was greater online than in other registration type. The prevalence of youth in online registration may provide another pathway to increasing their influence on the political make-up of the electorate
California youth voter registration numbers have grown substantially over the course of the last decade, 25% from the 2002-2010 November elections, outpacing growth in the general electorate. Despite these gains, youth remain underrepresented in California's electorate, with disparity greatest in regions with some of the poorest outcomes for youth.
This brief outlines the dramatic increases in Latino and Asian voter registration - nearly 40% for both groups. Despite these gains, there remains a significant gap between Latino and Asian registration compared to their proportion of the state's overall population. The voter registration gap means that these groups have proportionately less say in the electoral process compared to the general population.
The California Civic Engagement Project (CCEP) recently published an issue brief examining reasons for Vote-by-Mail (VBM) ballot rejection in the state of California and the methods taken at the county level to help voters correct VBM ballot issues. Utilizing detailed voter registration data from California’s county election offices, this latest brief breaks down the analysis of the state’s rejected by age, language preference and military status for the 2012 General Election. Key findings include the following: Youth and non-English language voters are more likely to experience VBM ballot rejection.Missing signatures are a major reason non-English ballots are rejected. Military and overseas voters experience a higher likelihood their VBM ballots will go uncounted.
Voting by mail surpassed 50 percent of votes cast in a general election in California for the first time in 2012. In the June 2014 primary, nearly 70% of all voters used vote-by-mail ballots. In every election, there are mail ballots that are cast but go uncounted. leaving voters disenfranchised. Understanding how and why many California ballots are invalidated (e.g., signature verification issues, postal issues) at the county level can critically inform efforts to reduce the percentage of the state's mail ballots that go uncounted in November 2014 and beyond.
About half of California's statewide ballots now cast are vote-by-mail. This new research is the first comprehensive analysis of the changing demographic composition of California's vote-by-mail voters over the past decade, providing critical insight into its impact on the state's electorate. Mains findings include: 1) Disparities in vote-by-mail use exist by age, race and ethnicity. There large and growing gap between Latino and Asian groups. 2) Asian voters favored voting by mail more than the general population, while Latinos — the largest growing segment of voters — still prefer to go to the polls. In 2012, 58 percent of Asian voters used mail ballots, compared to only 37 percent of Latino voters. 3) Young voters, ages 18-23, voted by mail the least of all age groups, at 39 percent.
This fact sheet highlights key data points from CCEP Policy Brief Issue 9. In the November 2014 general elections, voter turnout was abysmal across the nation, producing the lowest U.S. turnout rates in decades. California's previous record for low turnout was broken by nearly a half dozen percentage points. Voter turnout is typically lower in mid-term elections, but fall 2014 marked a major falloff from the state's general election turnout in 2012, resulting in even less representation of voters. In this brief, we examine youth electoral participation in California's November 2014 general election and explore the impact of the youth vote on the current and future electoral landscape of the state.
CCEP Policy Brief Ten: California's Latino and Asian-American Vote: Dramatic Underrepresentation in 2014 and Expected Impact in 2016 - FACT SHEET SERIES
The CCEP released new facts sheet on the California Latino and Asian-American vote. These fact sheets correspond with the recently CCEP publication, California's Latino and Asia American Vote: Dramatic Underrepresentation in 2014 and expected Impact in 2016.
CCEP ACADEMIC ARTICLES:
BOOM: A Journal of California just published an article by the CCEP's Mindy Romero, UC Davis, and Jonathan Fox, UC Santa Cruz, examining regional voter registration rates across California. Findings show that while registration rates are the highest they have been since 1996, they are disproportionate across California's landscape, reflecting the underrepresentation of lower income communities. Click here for the short article.